ochwepheshe

Kusukela mhla zizi-4 kuya kumhla ziyisi-6 kuleli sonto, ingqungquthela edonse ukunaka okukhulu embonini kawoyela namafutha emhlabeni ibibanjelwe eKuala Lumpur, eMalaysia.Imakethe yamanje kawoyela “egcwele amabhere” igcwele inkungu, futhi bonke ababambiqhaza babheke ngabomvu umhlangano ukuze banikeze isiqondiso sokuqondisa.

Igama eliphelele lengqungquthela lithi “Ingqungquthela Ye-Outlook Yentengo Yamafutha E-Laurel Ye-35 kanye Nombukiso”, okuwumcimbi waminyaka yonke wokushintshisana ngezimboni ophethwe yi-Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD).

Abahlaziyi abaningi abaziwayo kanye nochwepheshe bezimboni baveze imibono yabo mayelana nokuhlinzekwa komhlaba wonke kanye nesidingo samafutha yemifino kanye namathemba entengo kawoyela wesundu emhlanganweni.Ngalesi sikhathi, izinkulumo ze-bullish zazivame ukusabalala, zishukumisa amafutha esundu ukushayela imakethe kawoyela namafutha ukuze ikhuphuke kuleli sonto.

Uwoyela wesundu wenza ama-32% okukhiqizwa kukawoyela odliwayo emhlabeni wonke, kanti umthamo wawo wokuthekelisa eminyakeni emibili edlule ubalele ku-54% womthamo wokuhweba kawoyela odliwayo emhlabeni, odlala indima yomholi wamanani emakethe kawoyela.

Phakathi nalesi sikhathi, imibono yezikhulumi eziningi yayingaguquguquki: ukukhula kokukhiqizwa e-Indonesia naseMalaysia kumile, kuyilapho ukusetshenziswa kukawoyela wesundu emazweni anesidingo esikhulu kuyethembisa, futhi amanani kawoyela wesundu kulindeleke ukuthi anyuke ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo bese ehla 2024. Yehlile noma yehla engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka.

U-Dorab Mistry, umhlaziyi ophezulu onolwazi lweminyaka engaphezu kwengu-40 embonini, ubeyisikhulumi esisindweni esinzima engqungqutheleni;kule minyaka emibili edlule, usephinde wathola omunye umazisi osindayo omusha: esebenza njengenkampani ehamba phambili yokusanhlamvu, uwoyela nokudla e-India USihlalo wenkampani esohlwini i-Adani Wilmar;inkampani iyibhizinisi elihlanganyelwe phakathi kwe-Adani Group yase-India kanye ne-Wilmar International yase-Singapore.

Lesi sazi semboni esizinze kahle siyibheka kanjani imakethe yamanje kanye nezitayela zesikhathi esizayo?Imibono yakhe iyahlukahluka kumuntu nomuntu, futhi okufanele kubhekiselwe kukho umbono wakhe wemboni, osiza abangaphakathi embonini ukuthi baqonde umongo kanye nentambo eyinhloko ngemuva kwemakethe eyinkimbinkimbi, ukuze bazenzele ezabo izinqumo.

Iphuzu eliyinhloko likaMistry liwukuthi: isimo sezulu siyashintsha, futhi amanani entengo yemikhiqizo yezolimo (amafutha namafutha) awekho.Ukholelwa ukuthi okulindelwe kwe-bullish okunengqondo kufanele kugcinwe kuwo wonke amafutha emifino, ikakhulukazi amafutha esundu.Okulandelayo amaphuzu abalulekile enkulumo yakhe yenkomfa:

Isimo sezulu esishisayo nesomile esihlotshaniswa ne-El Niño ngo-2023 sithambile kakhulu kunokulindelekile futhi ngeke sibe nomthelela omncane ezindaweni zokukhiqiza uwoyela wesundu.Ezinye izitshalo zembewu kawoyela (ubhontshisi wesoya, i-rapeseed, njll.) zinesivuno esivamile noma esingcono.

Amanani kawoyela wemifino nawo enze okubi kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe kuze kube manje;ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokukhiqizwa okuhle kukawoyela wesundu ngo-2023, idola eliqinile, umnotho obuthakathaka emazweni asetshenziswa kakhulu, kanye namanani aphansi kawoyela kabhekilanga esifundeni soLwandle Olumnyama.

Njengoba sesingene ku-2024, isimo samanje ukuthi isidingo semakethe siyisicaba, ubhontshisi wesoya nommbila kuzuze isivuno esikhulu, u-El Niño wehlile, izimo zokukhula kwezilimo zizinhle, idola laseMelika linamandla uma kuqhathaniswa, futhi uwoyela kabhekilanga uyaqhubeka nokuba namandla. buthaka.

Ngakho-ke, yiziphi izici ezizonyusa amanani kawoyela?Kunezinkunzi ezine okungenzeka:

Okokuqala, kunezinkinga zesimo sezulu eNyakatho Melika;okwesibili, i-Federal Reserve inciphise kakhulu izinga lenzalo, ngaleyo ndlela yenza buthaka amandla okuthenga kanye nezinga lokushintshaniswa kwedola laseMelika;okwesithathu, i-US Democratic Party yanqoba okhethweni lwangoNovemba futhi yenza izikhuthazo eziqinile zokuvikela imvelo;okwesine, amanani kagesi anyukile.

Ngamafutha esundu

Ukukhiqizwa kwesundu sikawoyela eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia akuzange kufinyelele okulindelekile ngenxa yokuthi izihlahla ziyaguga, izindlela zokukhiqiza zihlehlisiwe, futhi indawo yokutshala ayikakhuli.Uma sibheka yonke imboni yezitshalo zikawoyela, imboni kawoyela wesundu ibihamba kancane ekusebenziseni ubuchwepheshe.

Ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela wesundu wase-Indonesia kungase kwehle okungenani ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-1 ngo-2024, kuyilapho ukukhiqizwa kwe-Malaysian kungase kuhlale kufana nonyaka odlule.

Izinzuzo zokucwenga ziye zaba zimbi ezinyangeni ezisanda kwedlula, okuwuphawu lokuthi amafutha esundu ashintshile asuka ekuchichimeni aya kokutholakala okuqinile;kanye nezinqubomgomo ezintsha ze-biofuel zizokwandisa ukungezwani, amafutha esundu azoba nethuba lokukhuphuka maduzane, futhi enkulu kakhulu I-bullish kungenzeka itholakala esimweni sezulu saseNyakatho Melika, ikakhulukazi efasiteleni lika-April kuya kuJulayi.

Amandla okukhiqiza amafutha esundu angahle abe khona yilawa: ukunwetshwa kwe-B100 pure biodiesel namandla okukhiqiza ezindiza ezindizayo (SAF) eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, ukwehla kokukhiqizwa kukawoyela wesundu, kanye nesivuno esibi sembewu kawoyela eNyakatho Melika, eYurophu noma kwenye indawo.

Mayelana nembewu edlwenguliwe

Ukukhiqizwa kwembewu yokudlwengulwa emhlabeni wonke kuyalulama ngo-2023, ngowoyela we-rapeseed ozuza ezinkuthazweni ze-biofuel.

Ukukhiqizwa kwembewu yase-India kuzofinyelela irekhodi ngo-2024, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokukhuthazwa okunamandla kwamaphrojekthi okudlwengulwa yizinhlangano zezimboni zaseNdiya.

Mayelana nobhontshisi wesoya

Isidingo esivilaphayo esivela e-China silimaza imakethe kabhontshisi wesoya;ubuchwepheshe bembewu obuthuthukisiwe buhlinzeka ngokusekela ukukhiqizwa kukabhontshisi wesoya;

Izinga lokuhlanganisa i-biodiesel laseBrazil linyusiwe, kodwa ukunyuka akubanga kangako njengoba imboni ibilindele;iMelika ithenga kwamanye amazwe amafutha okupheka emfucuza aseShayina amaningi, awabi kubhontshisi wesoya kodwa alungele amafutha esundu;

Ukudla kukabhontshisi wesoya kuba umthwalo futhi kungase kuqhubeke nokubhekana nengcindezi.

Mayelana namafutha e-sunflower

Nakuba ukungqubuzana phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine kuye kwaqhubeka kusukela ngo-February 2022, la mazwe womabili azuze isivuno esikhulu sembewu kabhekilanga kanye nokucutshungulwa kukawoyela kabhekilanga akuzange kuthinteke;

Futhi njengoba izimali zabo zehla uma ziqhathaniswa nedola, uwoyela kabhekilanga washibhe kuwo womabili la mazwe;amafutha kabhekilanga athathe amasheya amasha emakethe.

Landela iShayina

Ngabe iChina izoba yimbangela yokukhuphuka kwemakethe kawoyela?kuya nge:

I-China izophinde iqale nini ukukhula ngokushesha futhi kuthiwani ngokusetshenziswa kukawoyela wemifino?Ingabe i-China izokwakha inqubomgomo ye-biofuels?Ngabe uwoyela wokupheka udoti i-UCO usazothunyelwa ngobuningi bawo?

Landela i-India

Ukungenisa kwe-India ngo-2024 kuzoba ngaphansi kuno-2023.

Ukusetshenziswa nesidingo e-India kubukeka kukuhle, kepha abalimi baseNdiya baphethe amasheya amakhulu embewu kawoyela ngonyaka ka-2023, futhi ukungeniswa kwesitoko ngo-2023 kuzoba yingozi ekuthengeni kwamanye amazwe.

Amandla omhlaba kanye nesidingo sikawoyela wokudla

Isidingo sikawoyela wamandla emhlabeni wonke (ama-biofuels) sizokwenyuka cishe ngamathani ayizigidi ezi-3 ngo-2022/23;ngenxa yokwanda kwamandla okukhiqiza nokusetshenziswa e-Indonesia nase-United States, isidingo sikawoyela wamandla kulindeleke ukuthi sikhuphuke ngamathani ayizigidi ezi-4 ngo-2023/24.

Isidingo sokucubungula ukudla komhlaba wonke samafutha emifino siye sakhula kancane kancane ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-3 ngonyaka, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo sikawoyela wokudla sizokhuphuka ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-3 ngo-23/24.

Izinto ezithinta amanani kawoyela

Ukuthi i-United States izowela yini ekuwohlokeni komnotho;amathemba kwezomnotho China;zizophela nini izimpi ezimbili (iRussia-Ukraine, iPalestine ne-Israel);umkhuba wamadola;iziqondiso ezintsha ze-biofuel kanye nezibonelelo;amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe.

umbono wentengo

Mayelana namanani kawoyela wemifino emhlabeni wonke, u-Mistry ubikezela okulandelayo:

Uwoyela wesundu waseMalaysia kulindeleke ukuthi uhwebe ngo-3,900-4,500 ringgit ($824-951) ngethani ngalinye phakathi kwamanje noJuni.

Ukuqondiswa kwamanani entengo kawoyela wesundu kuzoncika kumthamo wokukhiqiza.Ikota yesibili (April, May, and June) yalo nyaka izoba inyanga lapho kutholakala khona amafutha esundu aqine kakhulu.

Isimo sezulu ngesikhathi sokutshala eNyakatho Melika sizoshintsha kakhulu ekubukeni kwentengo ngemva kukaMeyi.Noma yiziphi izinkinga zesimo sezulu eNyakatho Melika zingakhanyisa i-fuse ngamanani aphezulu.

Izintengo zekusasa likawoyela wesoya we-US CBOT zizokhuphuka ngenxa yokwehliswa kokukhiqizwa kukawoyela wesoya wasekhaya e-United States futhi zizoqhubeka nokuhlomula ngesidingo esiqinile se-US biodiesel.

Uwoyela wesoya wase-US uzoba uwoyela wemifino obiza kakhulu emhlabeni, futhi lesi sici sizosekela amanani kawoyela we-rapeseed.

Amanani kawoyela kabhekilanga abukeka ehlile.

Fingqa

Umthelela omkhulu kuzoba yisimo sezulu saseNyakatho Melika, ukukhiqizwa kwamafutha esundu kanye nomyalelo we-biofuels.

Isimo sezulu sihlala sishintsha kakhulu kwezolimo.Isimo sezulu esihle, esivune isivuno sakamuva futhi sehlise amanani okusanhlamvu kanye nezimbewu zikawoyela emazingeni aphansi angaphezu kweminyaka emithathu, singase singahlali isikhathi eside futhi kufanele sibhekwe ngokuqapha.

Amanani ezolimo awashintshile uma kubhekwa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu.