iingcali

Ukususela ngo-Matshi 4 ukuya kwi-6 kule veki, inkomfa eyatsala ingqalelo ephezulu kwi-oyile yehlabathi kunye ne-fat industry yabanjwa eKuala Lumpur, eMalaysia.Imarike yeoli yangoku "ibhere" igcwele inkungu, kwaye bonke abathathi-nxaxheba bajonge phambili kwintlanganiso yokubonelela ngesikhokelo solwalathiso.

Igama elipheleleyo lenkomfa "I-35 ye-Palm Oil kunye ne-Laurel Ixabiso leNkomfa ye-Oli ye-Oil Outlook kunye noMboniso", okuyisiganeko sonyaka sokutshintshiselana kweshishini elibanjwe yiBursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD).

Abahlalutyi abaninzi abaziwayo kunye neengcali zoshishino bavakalisa iimbono zabo malunga nokunikezelwa kwehlabathi kunye nemfuno yeoli yemifuno kunye namathuba exabiso leoli yesundu kwintlanganiso.Ngeli xesha, amazwi e-bullish ahlala esasazwa, ekhuthaza ioli yesundu ukuqhuba i-oyile kunye ne-fat market ukuba iphakame kule veki.

I-oyile yesundu yenza i-32% yemveliso ye-oyile etyiwayo kwihlabathi, kwaye umthamo wayo wokuthumela ngaphandle kule minyaka mibini idlulileyo wenze i-54% yexabiso le-oyile etyiwayo yehlabathi, idlala indima yenkokeli yamaxabiso kwimarike yeoli.

Ngeli xesha le seshoni, iimbono zezona zithethi zazihambelana ngokuthe ngqo: ukukhula kwemveliso e-Indonesia naseMalaysia kuye kwancipha, ngelixa ukusetyenziswa kweoli yesundu kumazwe afunwa kakhulu kuthembisa, kwaye amaxabiso eoli yesundu kulindeleke ukuba anyuke kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezizayo aze awele. 2024. Iye yacotha okanye yehla kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka.

UDorab Mistry, umhlalutyi ophezulu oneminyaka engaphezu kwe-40 yamava kwishishini, wayesisithethi esinzima kwinkomfa;kule minyaka mibini idlulileyo, uye wafumana enye isazisi esinzima esitsha: esebenza njengeyona nkampani iphambili yaseIndiya yokutya okuziinkozo, i-oyile kunye nokutya USihlalo wenkampani edwelisiweyo uAdani Wilmar;Inkampani lishishini elidibeneyo phakathi kwe-Adani Group yase-Indiya kunye ne-Singapore's Wilmar International.

Ingaba le ngcaphephe yoshishino isekwe kakuhle ijonga njani imarike yangoku kunye neendlela ezizayo?Iimbono zakhe ziyahluka kumntu nomntu, kwaye eyona nto ibalulekileyo ekubhekiselelwe kuyo yimbono yakhe yeshishini, enceda abantu bangaphakathi kwishishini baqonde umxholo kunye nomsonto ophambili emva kwemarike entsonkothileyo, ukuze bazenzele ezabo izigwebo.

Inqaku eliphambili le-Mistry kukuba: imozulu iyaguquka, kwaye amaxabiso emveliso yezolimo (amafutha kunye namafutha) awabizi.Ukholelwa ukuba ulindelo olufanelekileyo lwe-bullish kufuneka lugcinwe kuzo zonke iioyile zemifuno, ngakumbi ioli yesundu.Oku kulandelayo ngamanqaku aphambili kwintetho yakhe yenkomfa:

Imozulu eshushu neyomileyo eyayanyaniswa ne-El Niño ngo-2023 ithambile kakhulu kunoko ibilindelekile kwaye iya kuba nempembelelo encinci kwimimandla yokuvelisa ioli yesundu.Ezinye izityalo ze-oyile (iimbotyi zesoya, iirapeseed, njalo njalo) zinesivuno esiqhelekileyo okanye esingcono.

Amaxabiso e-oyile yemifuno nawo enze kakubi kunokuba bekulindelwe ukuza kuthi ga ngoku;ubukhulu becala ngenxa yemveliso yeoli yesundu elungileyo ngo-2023, idola eyomeleleyo, uqoqosho olubuthathaka kumazwe abathengi angundoqo, kunye namaxabiso asezantsi e-oyile kajongilanga kummandla woLwandle Olumnyama.

Ngoku singene ku-2024, imeko yangoku yeyokuba imfuno yentengiso ithe tyaba, iimbotyi zesoya kunye nombona zizuze isivuno esikhulu, i-El Niño yehlile, iimeko zokukhula kwezityalo zintle, idola yaseMelika inamandla ngokwentelekiso, kwaye i-oyile kajongilanga iyaqhubeka nokuba nkulu. buthathaka.

Ke, zeziphi izinto eziya kunyusa amaxabiso eoli?Kukho iinkunzi ezine ezinokubakho:

Okokuqala, kukho iingxaki zemozulu kuMntla Merika;okwesibini, i-Federal Reserve iye yanciphisa ngokukhawuleza izinga lenzala, ngaloo ndlela iyancipha amandla okuthenga kunye nezinga lokutshintshiselana kwe-dollar yase-US;okwesithathu, i-US Democratic Party iphumelele unyulo lukaNovemba kwaye yenza inkuthazo eqinile yokukhusela okusingqongileyo;okwesine, amaxabiso ombane anyukile.

Malunga neoli yesundu

Ukuveliswa kweoli yesundu kuMzantsi-mpuma weAsia akukhange kufezekiseke oko bekulindelweyo kuba imithi iyaguga, iindlela zokuvelisa zisemva, kwaye indawo yokutyala iye yanda.Ukujonga kulo lonke ishishini lezityalo zeoyile, ishishini leoli yesundu liye lacotha kakhulu kwisicelo sobuchwephesha.

Imveliso yeoli yesundu yase-Indonesia inokwehla nge-1 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2024, ngelixa imveliso yaseMalaysia inokuhlala ifana nonyaka odlulileyo.

Ukusulungekiswa kweenzuzo ziye zajika zingalunganga kwiinyanga zakutshanje, uphawu lokuba ioli yesundu ishintshile ukusuka kuninzi ukuya ekuboneleleni okuqinileyo;kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo entsha ye-biofuel iya kwandisa ukuxhatshazwa, ioli yesundu iya kuba nethuba lokunyuka ngokukhawuleza, kwaye inkulu I-bullish inokwenzeka ihleli kwimozulu yaseNyakatho yaseMelika, ngakumbi ngo-Ephreli ukuya kuJulayi wefestile.

Abaqhubi abanokubakho kwioli yesundu zezi: Ukwandiswa kwe-B100 ecocekileyo ye-biodiesel kunye ne-aviation fuel ezinzileyo (SAF) umthamo wemveliso kuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia, ukucotha kwimveliso yeoli yesundu, kunye nesivuno esibi sembewu yeoli kuMntla Merika, eYurophu okanye kwenye indawo.

Malunga nembewu yokudlwengulwa

Imveliso yezityalo ezidlwengulweyo yehlabathi iphinde yachacha ngo-2023, nge-oyile yokudlwengulwa ixhamla kwinkuthazo ye-biofuel.

Imveliso edlwengulweyo yaseIndiya iya kufikelela irekhodi ngo-2024, ikakhulu ngenxa yokukhuthaza ngamandla iiprojekthi ezidlwengulweyo yimibutho yeshishini laseIndiya.

Malunga neembotyi zesoya

Imfuno ecothayo evela eTshayina ilimaza intengiso yeembotyi zesoya;ubuchwephesha bembewu obuphuculweyo bubonelela ngenkxaso kwimveliso yeembotyi zesoya;

Izinga lokudityaniswa kwe-biodiesel yaseBrazil lonyusiwe, kodwa ukonyuka akuzange kube kangako njengoko ishishini belilindele;iUnited States ithenga kumazwe angaphandle ioli yokupheka yaseTshayina eninzi, engafanelekanga kwiimbotyi zesoya kodwa ilungele ioli yesundu;

Ukutya kweembotyi zesoya kuba ngumthwalo kwaye kunokuqhubeka nokujongana noxinzelelo.

Malunga neoli yelanga

Nangona ungquzulwano phakathi kweRashiya ne-Ukraine luye lwaqhubeka ukususela ngoFebruwari 2022, la mazwe mabini afumene isivuno esikhulu sembewu kajongilanga kunye nokulungiswa kweoli kajongilanga akuchaphazelekanga;

Kwaye njengoko iimali zabo zehla xa zithelekiswa nedola, ioli ye-sunflower yaya yancinci kuwo omabini la mazwe;i-oyile kajongilanga yathatha izabelo ezintsha zemarike.

Landela iTshayina

Ngaba iChina iya kuba yeyona nto iqhubayo emva kokunyuka kwentengiso yeoli?kuxhomekeka kwi:

I-China iya kuphinda iqalise nini ukukhula ngokukhawuleza kwaye kuthekani malunga nokusetyenziswa kwe-oyile yemifuno?Ngaba iChina iya kuqulunqa umgaqo-nkqubo we-biofuels?Ngaba i-oyile yokupheka inkunkuma i-UCO isathunyelwa kumazwe angaphandle ngobuninzi?

Landela iIndiya

Izinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle eIndiya ngo-2024 ziya kuba ngaphantsi kunowama-2023.

Ukusetyenziswa kunye nemfuno eIndiya ijongeka ilungile, kodwa amafama aseIndiya aphethe isitokhwe esikhulu sembewu yeoli ngo-2023, kwaye ukuthwala isitokhwe ngo-2023 kuya kuba yingozi ekuthengeni ngaphandle.

Amandla ehlabathi kunye nemfuno ye-oyile yokutya

Imfuno ye-oyile yamandla ehlabathi (i-biofuels) iza kunyuka malunga ne-3 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2022/23;ngenxa yokwandiswa komthamo wemveliso kunye nokusetyenziswa e-Indonesia nase-United States, imfuno ye-oyile yamandla kulindeleke ukuba inyuke ngakumbi nge-4 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2023/24.

Imfuno yokulungiswa kokutya kwe-Global ye-oyile yemifuno iye yanda ngokuthe ngcembe nge-3 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba imfuno ye-oyile yokutya iya kunyuka nge-3 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-23/24.

Izinto ezichaphazela amaxabiso eoli

Nokuba iUnited States iya kuwa phantsi koqoqosho;amathemba China kwezoqoqosho;ziya kuphela nini iimfazwe ezimbini (iRashiya-Ukraine, iPalestine kunye noSirayeli);indlela yedola;imiyalelo emitsha ye-biofuel kunye nenkuthazo;amaxabiso eoyile ekrwada.

ixabiso imbonakalo

Ngokumalunga namaxabiso e-oyile yemifuno yehlabathi, uMistry uqikelela oku kulandelayo:

Ioli yesundu yaseMalaysia kulindeleke ukuba ithengise nge-3,900-4,500 ringgit (i-$ 824-951) ngetoni nganye phakathi kwangoku kunye noJuni.

Ulwalathiso lwamaxabiso eoli yesundu luya kuxhomekeka kumthamo wemveliso.Ikota yesibini (uAprili, uMeyi, noJuni) kulo nyaka iya kuba yinyanga enobonelelo olungqongqo lweoli yesundu.

Imozulu ngexesha lokutyala eNyakatho Melika iya kuba yinto eguquguqukayo kwixabiso lentengo emva koMeyi.Nayiphi na imiba yemozulu eMntla Melika inokukhanyisa ifuse ngamaxabiso aphezulu.

Amaxabiso exesha elizayo e-US CBOT yeoli yeembotyi zesoya aya kuphinda abuyele ngenxa yokwehliswa kwemveliso yeoli yesoya yasekhaya e-United States kwaye iya kuqhubeka nokuxhamla kwimfuno eyomeleleyo ye-biodiesel yase-US.

I-oyile yesoya yase-US iya kuba yeyona oyile yemifuno ebiza kakhulu kwihlabathi, kwaye lo mba uyakuxhasa amaxabiso eoli ye-rapeseed.

Amaxabiso eoli kajongilanga akhangeleka ehlile.

Shwankathela

Iimpembelelo ezinkulu ziya kuba yimozulu yaseNyakatho yaseMelika, ukuveliswa kweoli yesundu kunye nomyalelo we-biofuels.

Imozulu iseyeyona nto iphambili kwezolimo.Imozulu entle, ethande ukuvunwa kwamva nje kwaye inyuse amaxabiso okuziinkozo nawembewu ye-oyile ukuya kuma ngaphantsi kweminyaka emithathu, isenokungahlali xesha lide kwaye ifanele ijongwe ngononophelo.

Amaxabiso ezolimo akakho phantsi xa kujongwa imeko yemozulu.