nyanzvi

Kubva munaKurume 4 kusvika 6 svondo rino, musangano wakakwezva kutarisa kwepamusoro kubva kuindasitiri yemafuta nemafuta epasi rose wakaitwa muKuala Lumpur, Malaysia.Ikozvino "bere-infested" musika wemafuta wakazara nemhute, uye vese vatori vechikamu vari kutarisira kumusangano kuti vape gwara rekutungamira.

Zita rakazara remusangano "The 35th Palm Oil uye Laurel Oiri Mutengo Outlook Musangano uye Exhibition", inova yegore negore indasitiri yekutsinhana chiitiko chinoitwa neBursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD).

Vazhinji vaongorori vanozivikanwa uye nyanzvi dzeindasitiri vakaratidza maonero avo pamusoro pekupa kwepasi rose uye kudiwa kwemafuta emiriwo uye tarisiro yemutengo wemafuta emichindwe pamusangano.Munguva iyi, zvirevo zveBullish zvaiwanzopararira, zvichikurudzira mafuta emichindwe kutyaira musika wemafuta nemafuta kuti usimuke svondo rino.

Oiri yePalm inotora 32% yekugadzirwa kwemafuta epasi rose, uye huwandu hwayo hwekutengesa kunze kwenyika mumakore maviri apfuura hwakaverengera 54% yehuwandu hwekutengesa mafuta epasi rose, ichiita chinzvimbo chemutungamiri wemitengo mumusika wemafuta.

Munguva yechikamu ichi, maonero evatauri vazhinji aive asingachinji: kukura kwekugadzirwa muIndonesia neMalaysia kwakamira, nepo kushandiswa kwemafuta emichindwe munyika dzinodiwa zvikuru kuri kuvimbisa, uye mitengo yemafuta emichindwe inotarisirwa kukwira mumwedzi mishoma inotevera yobva yadonha. 2024. Yakadzikira kana kuenda yakaderera muhafu yekutanga yegore.

Dorab Mistry, muongorori mukuru ane makore anopfuura 40 ane ruzivo muindasitiri iyi, akanga ari mukurukuri anorema pamusangano;mumakore maviri apfuura, akawanawo chimwe chiziviso chitsva chinorema: kushanda sekambani yeIndia inotungamira zviyo, oiri nechikafu Sachigaro wekambani yakanyorwa Adani Wilmar;kambani iyi mubatanidzwa pakati peIndia's Adani Group neSingapore's Wilmar International.

Iyi nyanzvi yakasimbiswa yeindasitiri inoona sei musika uripo uye mafambiro emangwana?Maonero ake anosiyana kubva kumunhu kuenda kumunhu, uye chakakodzera kunongedzera kune yake indasitiri maonero, ayo anobatsira mukati meindasitiri kuti vanzwisise mamiriro uye tambo huru kuseri kwemusika wakaoma, kuitira kuti vatore kutonga kwavo.

Pfungwa huru yeMistry ndeyekuti: mamiriro ekunze anoshanduka, uye mitengo yezvigadzirwa zvekurima (mafuta nemafuta) haisi bhiza.Anotenda kuti zvinonzwisisika zvinotarisirwa zvinofanirwa kuchengetedzwa kune ese mafuta emiriwo, kunyanya mafuta emichindwe.Izvi zvinotevera pfungwa huru dzehurukuro yake yemusangano:

Kupisa uye kwakaoma mamiriro ekunze ane hukama neEl Niño muna 2023 zvakapfava zvakanyanya kupfuura zvaitarisirwa uye hazvizove nemhedzisiro munzvimbo dzekugadzira mafuta emichindwe.Zvimwe zvirimwa zvemhodzi yemafuta (soya beans, rapeseed, nezvimwewo) zvine goho rakanaka kana riri nani.

Mitengo yemafuta emuriwo yakaitawo zvakaipa kupfuura zvaitarisirwa kusvika pari zvino;kunyanya nekuda kwekugadzirwa kwakanaka kwemafuta emichindwe muna 2023, dhora rakasimba, hupfumi husina kusimba munyika dzevatengi, uye nemitengo yakaderera yemafuta esunflower mudunhu reBlack Sea.

Zvatapinda muna 2024, mamiriro akaita zvinhu pamusika akati sandara, soya beans nechibage zvawana goho rakakura, El Niño yadzikira, mamiriro ekukura kwembesa arikunaka, dhora rekuAmerica ranyanya kusimba, uye mafuta esunflower ari kuramba achiwanda. weak.

Saka, ndezvipi zvinhu zvinokwidza mitengo yemafuta?Kune nzombe ina dzinogona kuitika:

Kutanga, kune zvinetso zvemamiriro okunze muNorth America;chechipiri, iyo Federal Reserve yakacheka zvakanyanya mhindu, nokudaro ichideredza simba rekutenga uye chiyero chekuchinjana kwedhora reUS;chechitatu, Bato reDemocratic Party reUnited States rakakunda musarudzo dzaNovember uye rakagadza simba rakasimba rekuchengetedza zvakatipoteredza;chechina, mitengo yemagetsi yakakwira.

Pamusoro pemafuta emichindwe

Kugadzirwa kwemafuta emichindwe muSoutheast Asia hakuna kuita zvinotarisirwa nekuti miti iri kuchembera, nzira dzekugadzira dziri kumashure, uye nzvimbo yekudyara haina kuwedzera.Tichitarisa indasitiri yese yezvirimwa zvemafuta, indasitiri yemafuta emichindwe yave ichinonoka mukushandisa tekinoroji.

Kugadzirwa kwemafuta emichindwe muIndonesia kunogona kudzikira neinosvika miriyoni imwe yematani muna 2024, ukuwo kugadzirwa kweMalasia kungangoramba kwakafanana negore rapfuura.

Kunatsiridza purofiti kwave kwakashata mumwedzi ichangopfuura, chiratidzo chekuti mafuta emichindwe achinja kubva pakuwanda kuenda kune yakasimba;uye mitemo mitsva yebiofuel ichawedzera kusawirirana, mafuta emuchindwe achakurumidza kuva nemukana wekusimuka, uye mukuru The bullish mukana iri North America okunze, kunyanya muna April kusvika July hwindo.

Zvinokwanisika madhiraivha emafuta emichindwe ndeaya: kuwedzera kweB100 yakachena biodiesel uye inosimudzira aviation mafuta (SAF) kugadzirwa muSoutheast Asia, kudzikira mukugadzirwa kwemafuta emichindwe, uye kushomeka kwegoho remafuta kuNorth America, Europe kana kumwewo.

Nezvekubatwa chibharo

Kugadzirwa kwepasi rose kwechibharo kunopora muna 2023, nemafuta echibharo achibatsirwa kubva kune biofuel incentives.

Kugadzirwa kwekubatwa chibharo kweIndia kuchasvika rekodhi muna 2024, zvakanyanya nekuda kwekusimudzira kwakasimba kwemapurojekiti akabatwa chibharo nemasangano eindasitiri eIndia.

Nezve soya

Kudota kudiwa kubva kuChina kunokuvadza manzwiro emusika wesoya;tekinoroji yembeu yakavandudzwa inopa rutsigiro rwekugadzirwa kwesoya;

Brazil's biodiesel blending rate yakawedzerwa, asi kuwedzera kwacho hakuna kunge kwakawanda sezvaitarisirwa neindasitiri;United States inotenga kunze kweChina mafuta ekubikisa marara akawanda, ayo akaipa pasoya beans asi akanakira mafuta emuchindwe;

Soya bhinzi inova mutoro uye inogona kuramba yakatarisana nedzvinyiriro.

Pamusoro pemafuta ezuva

Kunyange hazvo kunetsana pakati peRussia neUkraine kwakaramba kuchienderera mberi kubva muna Kukadzi 2022, nyika mbiri idzi dzakawana goho rakakura remhodzi yezuva uye kugadzira mafuta esunflower hakuna kukanganiswa;

Uye sezvo mari dzavo dzakadzikira padhora, mafuta esunflower akachipa munyika mbiri idzi;mafuta esunflower akatora migove mitsva yemusika.

Tevera China

China ndiyo ichave iri kufambisa musika wemafuta here?zvichienderana ne:

China ichatangazve riini kukura nekukurumidza uye ko nezve kushandiswa kwemafuta emichero?China ichagadzira mutemo webiofuels here?Ko mafuta ekubikisa tsvina eUCO acharamba achitengeswa kunze kwenyika akawanda here?

Tevera India

Zvinotengeswa zveIndia muna 2024 zvichange zvakaderera pane muna 2023.

Kushandiswa uye kudiwa muIndia kunoratidzika kunge kwakanaka, asi varimi veIndia vanobata matura makuru embeu dzemafuta muna 2023, uye kutakurwa kwemasheya muna 2023 kuchakanganisa kutengwa kunze kwenyika.

Simba repasi rose uye kudiwa kwemafuta ekudya

Kudiwa kwemafuta epasi rose (biofuels) kuchawedzera nematani angangoita mamirioni matatu muna 2022/23;nekuda kwekuwedzera kwesimba rekugadzira uye kushandiswa muIndonesia neUnited States, kudiwa kwemafuta emagetsi kunotarisirwa kuwedzera nemamiriyoni mana ematani muna 2023/24.

Kugadzirwa kwechikafu chepasi rose kudiwa kwemafuta emiriwo kwakawedzera zvishoma nemamiriyoni matatu ematani pagore, uye zvinotarisirwa kuti kudiwa kwemafuta echikafu kuchawedzerawo nemamiriyoni matatu ematani muna 23/24.

Zvinhu zvinokanganisa mitengo yemafuta

Kunyangwe United States ichawira mukuderera;Tarisiro yehupfumi yeChina;Hondo mbiri (Russia-Ukraine, Palestine neIsrael) dzichapera rinhi;dollar trend;mirairo mitsva yebiofuel uye zvinokurudzira;mitengo yemafuta asina kuchena.

mutengo maonero

Nezve mitengo yemafuta yemiriwo yepasi rose, Mistry anofanotaura zvinotevera:

Mafuta emichindwi ekuMalaysia anotarisirwa kutengeswa pa3,900-4,500 ringgit ($824-951) patani pakati pazvino naChikumi.

Kutungamira kwemitengo yemafuta emichindwe kuchaenderana nehuwandu hwekugadzira.Chikamu chechipiri (Kubvumbi, Chivabvu, naChikumi) chegore rino chichava mwedzi une mafuta emuchindwe akasimba kwazvo.

Mamiriro ekunze panguva yekudyara muNorth America ichave yakakosha shanduko mumutengo wekutarisa mushure meMay.Chero mamiriro ekunze muNorth America anogona kuvheneka fuse yemitengo yakakwira.

US CBOT soya bhinzi yemafuta emangwana mitengo ichakwira nekuda kwekudzikira kwekugadzirwa kwemafuta esoya mudzimba muUnited States uye icharamba ichibatsirwa kubva kune yakasimba US biodiesel inoda.

Oiri yesoya yeUS ichave mafuta emuriwo anodhura zvakanyanya pasi rose, uye chinhu ichi chinotsigira mitengo yemafuta akabatwa chibharo.

Mitengo yemafuta esunflower inoita kunge yakadzikira.

Pfupisa

Kufurira kukuru kuchave kuNorth America mamiriro ekunze, kugadzirwa kwemafuta emichindwe uye kuraira kwebiofuels.

Mamiriro ekunze anoramba ari shanduko huru mune zvekurima.Mamiriro okunze akanaka, ayo akafarira goho renguva pfupi yapfuura uye akaita kuti mitengo yezviyo nembeu yemafuta iwedzere kuderera kupfuura makore matatu, ingasagara kwenguva refu uye inofanira kuonekwa nokungwarira.

Mitengo yezvekurima haina kuderera kana tichitarisa kusamira zvakanaka kwemamiriro ekunze.