abahanga

Kuva ku ya 4 kugeza ku ya 6 Werurwe muri iki cyumweru, i Kuala Lumpur, muri Maleziya, inama yitabiriwe cyane n’inganda z’amavuta n’ibinure ku isi.Isoko rya peteroli "ryanduye" muri iki gihe ryuzuye ibicu, kandi abitabiriye amahugurwa bose bategereje ko inama izatanga ubuyobozi.

Izina ryuzuye ry’inama ni “Ihuriro rya 35 ry’amavuta ya Palm na Laurel Oil Outlook Inama n’imurikagurisha”, kikaba ari igikorwa ngarukamwaka cyo guhanahana inganda cyakiriwe na Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD).

Abasesenguzi benshi bazwi cyane n’inzobere mu nganda bagaragaje icyo batekereza ku itangwa ry’isi ku isi ndetse n’ibikenerwa n’amavuta akomoka ku bimera ndetse n’ibiciro by’amavuta y’imikindo muri iyo nama.Muri iki gihe, amagambo yo gutukana yakwirakwijwe kenshi, atera amavuta yintoki kugirango amavuta nisoko ryamavuta bizamuke muri iki cyumweru.

Amavuta yintoki afite 32% yumusaruro wamavuta aribwa kwisi yose, naho ibicuruzwa byoherezwa hanze mumyaka ibiri ishize bingana na 54% byubucuruzi bwibikomoka kuri peteroli biribwa ku isi, bigira uruhare mubuyobozi bwibiciro ku isoko rya peteroli.

Muri iki gihembwe, ibitekerezo by’abavuga rikijyana byari bimwe: ubwiyongere bw’umusaruro muri Indoneziya na Maleziya bwarahagaze, mu gihe ikoreshwa ry’amavuta y’imikindo mu bihugu bikenerwa cyane ritanga icyizere, kandi biteganijwe ko ibiciro by’amavuta y’amamesa bizamuka mu mezi make ari imbere hanyuma bikagabanuka. 2024. Yadindije cyangwa yagiye hasi mugice cya mbere cyumwaka.

Dorab Mistry, umusesenguzi mukuru ufite uburambe bwimyaka irenga 40 mu nganda, yari umuvugizi uremereye muri iyo nama;mu myaka ibiri ishize, yabonye kandi indi ndangamuntu nshya iremereye: kuba umuyobozi w’isosiyete ikora ibinyampeke, amavuta n’ibiribwa mu Buhinde Umuyobozi w’isosiyete yashyizwe ku rutonde Adani Wilmar;isosiyete ni umushinga uhuriweho na Adani Group yo mu Buhinde na Wilmar International yo muri Singapuru.

Nigute iyi mpuguke yashinzwe neza ibona isoko iriho hamwe nigihe kizaza?Ibitekerezo bye biratandukanye kubantu, kandi igikwiye kuvugwa nukureba inganda ze, zifasha abari munganda gusobanukirwa imiterere ninsanganyamatsiko nyamukuru inyuma yisoko rigoye, kugirango bashishoze.

Ingingo nyamukuru ya Mistry ni: ikirere kirahinduka, kandi ibiciro byibikomoka ku buhinzi (amavuta n’amavuta) ntibishobora kugabanuka.Yizera ko ibiteganijwe gushyira mu gaciro bigomba gukomeza kubaho ku mavuta akomoka ku bimera, cyane cyane amavuta y’amamesa.Ibikurikira nizo ngingo zingenzi z’ijambo rye mu nama:

Ibihe bishyushye kandi byumye bifitanye isano na El Niño mu 2023 biroroshye cyane kuruta uko byari byitezwe kandi ntibizagira ingaruka nke mubice by’amavuta yintoki.Ibindi bihingwa byamavuta (soya, kungufu, nibindi) bifite umusaruro usanzwe cyangwa mwiza.

Ibiciro bya peteroli yimboga nabyo byakoze nabi kurenza uko byari byitezwe kugeza ubu;ahanini biterwa n’umusaruro mwiza wamavuta yintoki mumwaka wa 2023, amadolari akomeye, ubukungu bwifashe nabi mubihugu by’abaguzi, ndetse n’ibiciro bya peteroli y’izuba mu karere ka nyanja yirabura.

Noneho ko twinjiye muri 2024, uko ibintu bimeze ubu nuko isoko ryifashe neza, soya n'ibigori byageze ku musaruro mwinshi, El Niño yaracogoye, imikurire y’ibihingwa ni nziza, amadolari y’Amerika arakomeye, kandi amavuta y’izuba akomeje kuba abanyantege nke.

None, ni ibihe bintu bizamura ibiciro bya peteroli?Hariho ibimasa bine bishoboka:

Icya mbere, hari ibibazo byikirere muri Amerika ya ruguru;icya kabiri, Banki nkuru y’igihugu yagabanije cyane igipimo cy’inyungu, bityo igabanya imbaraga zo kugura n’ivunjisha ry’idolari ry’Amerika;icya gatatu, Ishyaka Riharanira Demokarasi ya Amerika ryatsinze amatora yo mu Gushyingo kandi rishyiraho ingamba zikomeye zo kurengera ibidukikije;kane, ibiciro by'ingufu byazamutse.

Ibyerekeye amavuta yintoki

Umusaruro w'amamesa mu majyepfo y’iburasirazuba bwa Aziya ntiwujuje ibyateganijwe kubera ko ibiti bishaje, uburyo bwo kubyaza umusaruro burasubira inyuma, kandi aho gutera byaragutse.Urebye inganda zose zikomoka kuri peteroli, inganda zamavuta yintoki zabaye buhoro mugukoresha ikoranabuhanga.

Umusaruro wamavuta yintoki muri Indoneziya urashobora kugabanuka byibuze toni miliyoni 1 mumwaka wa 2024, mugihe umusaruro wa Maleziya ushobora gukomeza kuba nkumwaka ushize.

Kunonosora inyungu byahindutse bibi mumezi ashize, ikimenyetso cyuko amavuta yintoki yavuye mubintu byinshi akajya kubitanga;na politiki nshya ya biyogi izarushaho gukaza umurego, amavuta yintoki azagira amahirwe yo kuzamuka, kandi nini nini ishobora guterwa nikirere cyo muri Amerika ya ruguru, cyane cyane mu idirishya rya Mata na Nyakanga.

Abashoferi bashobora guterura amavuta yintoki ni: kwagura B100 ya biodiesel yuzuye hamwe nubushobozi bwa peteroli yindege irambye (SAF) muburasirazuba bwamajyepfo ya Aziya, umuvuduko muke wamavuta yintoki, hamwe nimbuto mbi yamavuta muri Amerika ya ruguru, Uburayi cyangwa ahandi.

Ibyerekeye gufata ku ngufu

Umusaruro wa kungufu ku isi wongeye gukira mu 2023, hamwe n’amavuta ya kungufu yunguka ingufu za bio.

Umusaruro w’ingufu w’Ubuhinde uzagera ku rutonde mu 2024, bitewe ahanini n’iterambere ry’imishinga yo gufata ku ngufu n’amashyirahamwe y’inganda zo mu Buhinde.

Ibijyanye na soya

Ubushake buke buturuka mubushinwa bubabaza isoko ya soya;guteza imbere ikoranabuhanga ryimbuto ritanga inkunga kumusaruro wa soya;

Igipimo cya biodiesel cyo muri Berezile cyiyongereye, ariko kwiyongera ntikwabaye nkuko inganda zari zitezwe;Amerika itumiza mu Bushinwa amavuta yo guteka imyanda myinshi, ikaba mbi kuri soya ariko ikaba nziza kumavuta yintoki;

Ifunguro rya soya rihinduka umutwaro kandi rishobora gukomeza guhura nigitutu.

Ibyerekeye amavuta yizuba

Nubwo amakimbirane hagati y’Uburusiya na Ukraine yakomeje kuva muri Gashyantare 2022, ibihugu byombi byageze ku musaruro mwinshi w’imbuto z’izuba kandi gutunganya amavuta y’izuba ntibyagize ingaruka;

Kandi uko amafaranga yabo yataye agaciro ugereranije n’idolari, amavuta yizuba yagabanutse mu bihugu byombi;amavuta yizuba yafashe imigabane mishya yisoko.

Kurikira Ubushinwa

Ubushinwa buzaba imbarutso yo kuzamuka kw'isoko rya peteroli?bitewe na:

Ni ryari Ubushinwa buzakomeza gukura byihuse kandi bite ku gukoresha amavuta akomoka ku bimera?Ubushinwa buzashyiraho politiki y’ibicanwa?Ese imyanda yo guteka UCO izakomeza koherezwa hanze kubwinshi?

Kurikira Ubuhinde

Ubuhinde butumizwa mu 2024 buzaba munsi ugereranije no muri 2023.

Ibikoreshwa n’ibisabwa mu Buhinde bisa neza, ariko abahinzi b’Abahinde bafite ibigega byinshi by’imbuto za peteroli mu 2023, kandi gutwara ibicuruzwa mu 2023 bizabangamira ibyoherezwa mu mahanga.

Ingufu ku isi n'ibikomoka kuri peteroli

Ibikenerwa na peteroli ku isi (ibinyabuzima) biziyongera hafi toni miliyoni 3 muri 2022/23;kubera kwagura ubushobozi n’umusaruro muri Indoneziya no muri Amerika, biteganijwe ko peteroli ikenerwa n’ingufu iziyongera kuri toni miliyoni 4 muri 2023/24.

Isoko ryo gutunganya ibiribwa ku isi ku mavuta akomoka ku bimera ryiyongereyeho toni miliyoni 3 ku mwaka, bikaba biteganijwe ko ibikomoka kuri peteroli y’ibiribwa nabyo biziyongera kuri toni miliyoni 3 muri 23/24.

Ibintu bigira ingaruka kubiciro bya peteroli

Niba Amerika izagwa mu bukungu;Ubukungu bw'Ubushinwa;intambara zombi (Uburusiya-Ukraine, Palesitine na Isiraheli) zizarangira ryari?icyerekezo cy'idolari;amabwiriza mashya ya biyogi no gushigikira;ibiciro bya peteroli.

ibiciro

Ku bijyanye n’ibiciro bya peteroli y’ibimera ku isi, Mistry ihanura ibi bikurikira:

Biteganijwe ko amavuta yintoki ya Maleziya azacuruza 3,900-4,500 ringgit ($ 824-951) kuri toni hagati yubu na Kamena.

Icyerekezo cyibiciro byamavuta yintoki bizaterwa nubunini bwumusaruro.Igihembwe cya kabiri (Mata, Gicurasi, na Kamena) cy'uyu mwaka kizaba ukwezi gutanga amavuta y'amamesa.

Ikirere mugihe cyo gutera muri Amerika ya ruguru kizaba impinduka zingenzi muburyo bwo kubona ibiciro nyuma ya Gicurasi.Ibibazo byose byikirere muri Amerika ya ruguru birashobora gucana fuse kubiciro biri hejuru.

Ibiciro bya peteroli ya soya yo muri Amerika CBOT izongera kwiyongera kubera igabanuka ry’umusaruro w’amavuta ya soya mu gihugu muri Amerika kandi uzakomeza kungukirwa n’ibikomoka kuri biodiesel muri Amerika.

Amavuta ya soya yo muri Amerika azahinduka amavuta yimboga ahenze kwisi, kandi iki kintu kizafasha ibiciro bya peteroli kungufu.

Ibiciro bya peteroli yizuba bisa nkaho byamanutse.

Vuga muri make

Ingaruka zikomeye zizaba ikirere cyo muri Amerika ya ruguru, umusaruro wamavuta yintoki nubuyobozi bwa biyogi.

Ikirere gikomeje guhinduka cyane mubuhinzi.Ikirere cyiza, cyashimangiye gusarurwa vuba kandi kikaba cyaratumye ibiciro by’imbuto n’amavuta bigabanuka kugeza ku myaka irenga itatu, ntibishobora kumara igihe kinini kandi bigomba kurebwa neza.

Ibiciro byubuhinzi ntibishobora kugabanuka ukurikije imiterere yikirere.