akatswiri

Kuyambira pa Marichi 4 mpaka 6 sabata ino, msonkhano womwe udakopa chidwi chachikulu kuchokera kumakampani amafuta ndi mafuta padziko lonse lapansi unachitikira ku Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.Msika wamakono wamafuta "odzala ndi zimbalangondo" wadzaza ndi chifunga, ndipo onse omwe akutenga nawo mbali akuyembekezera msonkhanowo kuti upereke chitsogozo.

Dzina lonse la msonkhanowu ndi "The 35th Palm Oil and Laurel Oil Price Outlook Conference and Exhibition", yomwe ndizochitika zapachaka zosinthanitsa zamakampani zomwe zimachitidwa ndi Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD).

Akatswiri ambiri odziwika bwino komanso akatswiri amakampani adawonetsa malingaliro awo pazakudya padziko lonse lapansi komanso kufunikira kwamafuta amasamba komanso chiyembekezo chamtengo wamafuta a kanjedza pamsonkhanowo.Panthawiyi, mawu olimbikitsa anali kufalikira pafupipafupi, kulimbikitsa mafuta a kanjedza kuyendetsa msika wamafuta ndi mafuta kuti akweze sabata ino.

Mafuta a mgwalangwa amapanga 32% yamafuta omwe amadyedwa padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo kuchuluka kwake komwe amatumizidwa m'zaka ziwiri zapitazi kumapangitsa 54% yamalonda amafuta padziko lonse lapansi, akutenga gawo la mtsogoleri wamitengo pamsika wamafuta.

Pa gawoli, malingaliro a okamba ambiri anali osasinthasintha: kukula kwa kupanga ku Indonesia ndi Malaysia kwatsika, pomwe kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa mafuta a kanjedza m'maiko ofunikira kwambiri kukulonjeza, ndipo mitengo ya kanjedza ikuyembekezeka kukwera m'miyezi ingapo yotsatira kenako kugwa. 2024. Yatsika pang'onopang'ono kapena yatsika mu theka loyamba la chaka.

Dorab Mistry, katswiri wofufuza wamkulu yemwe ali ndi zaka zoposa 40 mumsikawu, anali wokamba nkhani wolemetsa pamsonkhano;m'zaka ziwiri zapitazi, adapezanso chizindikiritso china chatsopano cholemera kwambiri: akutumikira monga wotsogola wamakampani ambewu, mafuta ndi chakudya ku India Wapampando wa kampani yomwe idatchulidwa Adani Wilmar;kampaniyo ndi mgwirizano pakati pa Adani Group yaku India ndi Wilmar International yaku Singapore.

Kodi katswiri wodziwika bwino wamakampaniyu amawona bwanji msika wamakono ndi zomwe zikuchitika m'tsogolomu?Malingaliro ake amasiyana pakati pa munthu ndi munthu, ndipo chomwe chili choyenera kunena ndi momwe amaonera makampani, zomwe zimathandiza anthu omwe ali m'makampani kuti amvetsetse zomwe zikuchitika komanso ulusi waukulu kumbuyo kwa msika wovuta, kuti adzipangire okha malingaliro awo.

Mfundo yaikulu ya Mistry ndi yakuti: nyengo imakhala yosinthika, ndipo mitengo yazinthu zaulimi (mafuta ndi mafuta) sizinthu.Iye amakhulupirira kuti wololera bullish ziyembekezo ayenera anakhalabe onse masamba mafuta, makamaka kanjedza mafuta.Zotsatirazi ndi mfundo zazikulu zakulankhula kwake pamsonkhano:

Nyengo yotentha komanso yowuma yokhudzana ndi El Niño mu 2023 ndi yocheperapo kuposa momwe amayembekezera ndipo sizikhudza kwambiri malo opangira mafuta a kanjedza.Mbewu zina zamafuta (soya, rapeseed, etc.) zimakolola zabwinobwino kapena zabwinoko.

Mitengo yamafuta amasamba nayonso yachita moipa kuposa momwe amayembekezera mpaka pano;makamaka chifukwa chopanga bwino mafuta a kanjedza mu 2023, dola yamphamvu, chuma chofooka m'maiko ogula, komanso kutsika kwamafuta a mpendadzuwa m'chigawo cha Black Sea.

Tsopano tangolowa mu 2024, momwe zinthu zilili panopa ndikuti msika ukuyenda bwino, soya ndi chimanga zakolola zambiri, El Niño wachepa, kukula kwa mbewu kuli bwino, dola ya US ndi yamphamvu, mafuta a mpendadzuwa akupitirizabe. ofooka.

Ndiye, ndi zinthu ziti zomwe zidzakweze mitengo yamafuta?Pali ng'ombe zinayi zomwe zingatheke:

Choyamba, pali vuto la nyengo ku North America;chachiwiri, Federal Reserve yachepetsa kwambiri chiwongola dzanja, potero ikufooketsa mphamvu zogulira ndi kusinthana kwa dola yaku US;chachitatu, chipani cha US Democratic Party chinapambana chisankho cha Novembala ndikukhazikitsa zolimbikitsa zoteteza zachilengedwe zobiriwira;chachinayi, mitengo yamagetsi yakwera kwambiri.

Za mafuta a kanjedza

Kupanga mafuta a kanjedza ku Southeast Asia sikunakwaniritsidwe zomwe zimayembekezeredwa chifukwa mitengoyi ikukalamba, njira zopangira ndi zobwerera m'mbuyo, ndipo malo obzala sakukulirakulira.Kuyang'ana msika wonse wamafuta amafuta, makampani amafuta a kanjedza akhala akuchedwa kwambiri pakugwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo.

Kupanga kwamafuta a kanjedza ku Indonesia kungachepe ndi matani 1 miliyoni mu 2024, pomwe ku Malaysia kutha kukhala kofanana ndi chaka chatha.

Zopindulitsa zoyenga zasintha m'miyezi yaposachedwa, chizindikiro chakuti mafuta a kanjedza asintha kuchoka kuzinthu zambiri kupita ku zolimba;ndi ndondomeko zatsopano za biofuel zidzakulitsa mikangano, mafuta a kanjedza posachedwapa adzakhala ndi mwayi wokwera, ndipo chachikulu The bullish kuthekera kwagona North America nyengo, makamaka mu April kuti July zenera.

Madalaivala otheka amafuta a kanjedza ndi awa: kukula kwa B100 pure biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) kupanga ku Southeast Asia, kuchepa kwa kupanga mafuta a kanjedza, ndi kukolola kosauka kwa mbewu ku North America, Europe kapena kwina.

Za mbewu zogwiriridwa

Kupanga mbewu zapadziko lonse lapansi kuchira mu 2023, mafuta ogwiriridwa amapindula ndi zolimbikitsa za biofuel.

Kupanga mbewu ku India kudzakhala kotchuka kwambiri mu 2024, makamaka chifukwa cholimbikitsa ma projekiti ogwiriridwa ndi mabungwe aku India.

Za soya

Kufuna kwaulesi kuchokera ku China kumawononga malingaliro a msika wa soya;Ukadaulo wabwino wambewu umathandizira kupanga soya;

Kuchuluka kwa kusakaniza kwa biodiesel ku Brazil kwawonjezeka, koma kuwonjezeka sikunakhale monga momwe makampani amayembekezera;dziko la United States limatumiza kunja mafuta ophikira otayirira a ku China ochuluka, omwe ndi oipa kwa soya koma abwino kwa mafuta a kanjedza;

Chakudya cha soya chimakhala cholemetsa ndipo chikhoza kupitirizabe kupanikizika.

Za mafuta a mpendadzuwa

Ngakhale kuti mkangano wapakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine wapitilira kuyambira February 2022, mayiko awiriwa apeza zokolola zambiri za mpendadzuwa komanso kukonza mafuta a mpendadzuwa sikunakhudzidwe;

Ndipo pamene ndalama zawo zinatsika mtengo poyerekeza ndi dola, mafuta a mpendadzuwa anatsika mtengo m’maiko onsewa;mafuta a mpendadzuwa adatenga magawo atsopano amsika.

Tsatirani China

Kodi China idzakhala yomwe ikuyambitsa kukwera kwa msika wamafuta?kutengera:

Kodi China iyambiranso kukula mwachangu komanso bwanji kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta a masamba?Kodi China ipanga ndondomeko yamafuta amafuta?Kodi mafuta ophikira otayira a UCO adzatumizidwabe kumayiko ena ambiri?

Tsatirani India

Zogulitsa ku India mu 2024 zidzakhala zotsika kuposa 2023.

Kugwiritsa ntchito komanso kufunidwa ku India kumawoneka bwino, koma alimi aku India amakhala ndi mbewu zambiri zamafuta mu 2023, ndipo kunyamula katundu mu 2023 kudzakhala kowononga kugulitsa kunja.

Kufuna mphamvu padziko lonse lapansi ndi mafuta a chakudya

Kufunika kwa mafuta padziko lonse lapansi (mafuta amafuta) kudzakwera pafupifupi matani 3 miliyoni mu 2022/23;chifukwa chakukula kwa mphamvu zopangira ndikugwiritsa ntchito ku Indonesia ndi United States, kufunikira kwamafuta amafuta kukuyembekezeka kukwera ndi matani 4 miliyoni mu 2023/24.

Kufuna kwapadziko lonse kwamafuta amafuta a masamba kwakula pang'onopang'ono ndi matani 3 miliyoni pachaka, ndipo akuyembekezeka kuti kufunikira kwamafuta amafuta kudzakweranso ndi matani 3 miliyoni mu 23/24.

Zomwe zimakhudza mitengo yamafuta

Kaya United States idzagwa pansi;Chiyembekezo chachuma cha China;kodi nkhondo ziwiri (Russia-Ukraine, Palestine ndi Israel) zidzatha liti;njira ya dollar;malangizo atsopano a biofuel ndi zolimbikitsa;mitengo yamafuta.

mawonekedwe amtengo

Ponena za mitengo yamafuta a masamba padziko lonse lapansi, Mistry akuneneratu izi:

Mafuta a kanjedza aku Malaysia akuyembekezeka kugulitsa pa 3,900-4,500 ringgit ($824-951) pa tani imodzi kuyambira pano mpaka Juni.

Mayendedwe a mitengo ya kanjedza adzatengera kuchuluka kwa zopanga.Gawo lachiwiri (April, May, ndi June) la chaka chino lidzakhala mwezi wokhala ndi mafuta ochuluka kwambiri a kanjedza.

Nyengo panthawi yobzala ku North America idzakhala yosintha kwambiri pamitengo pambuyo pa Meyi.Mavuto aliwonse anyengo ku North America amatha kuyatsa fuseyi pamitengo yokwera.

Mitengo yamtsogolo yamafuta a soya ku US CBOT ikwera chifukwa chakuchepa kwamafuta a soya ku United States ndipo ipitiliza kupindula ndi kufunikira kwamphamvu kwa US biodiesel.

Mafuta a soya aku US adzakhala mafuta amasamba okwera mtengo kwambiri padziko lapansi, ndipo izi zithandizira mitengo yamafuta ogwiriridwa.

Mitengo yamafuta a mpendadzuwa ikuwoneka kuti yatsika.

Fotokozerani mwachidule

Zomwe zikuluzikulu zidzakhala nyengo yaku North America, kupanga mafuta a kanjedza ndi malangizo a biofuels.

Nyengo ikadali kusintha kwakukulu paulimi.Nyengo yabwino, yomwe yathandiza kukolola posachedwapa ndipo yachititsa kuti mitengo yambewu ndi yamafuta ikhale yotsika kwambiri kwa zaka zitatu, siikhalitsa ndipo iyenera kuwonedwa mosamala.

Mitengo yaulimi sitsika chifukwa cha kusinthasintha kwa nyengo.