ndị ọkachamara

Site na Machị 4th ruo 6th n'izu a, ọgbakọ nke dọtara mmasị dị elu site na ụlọ ọrụ mmanụ na abụba zuru ụwa ọnụ mere na Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.Ahịa mmanụ "bear-merụọ" dị ugbu a juputara na ikuku, ndị niile sonyere na-atụ anya nzukọ ahụ iji nye nduzi nduzi.

Aha zuru ezu nke ogbako a bụ "Ogbako 35th Palm Oil na Laurel Oil Outlook Conference and Exhibition", nke bụ mmemme mgbanwe ụlọ ọrụ kwa afọ nke Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD) na-akwado.

Ọtụtụ ndị nyocha a ma ama na ndị ọkachamara n'ụlọ ọrụ kwupụtara echiche ha banyere inye ụwa na ọchịchọ nke mmanụ ihe oriri na atụmanya ọnụahịa nke nkwụ na nzukọ ahụ.N'ime oge a, a na-agbasa okwu mkparị ugboro ugboro, na-akpali mmanụ nkwụ na-eme ka ahịa mmanụ na abụba na-ebili n'izu a.

Mmanụ nkwụ bụ 32% nke mmepụta mmanụ oriri zuru ụwa ọnụ, na oke mbupụ ya n'ime afọ abụọ gara aga bụ 54% nke ahịa ahịa mmanụ oriri zuru ụwa ọnụ, na-arụ ọrụ onye isi ọnụahịa n'ahịa mmanụ.

N'oge nnọkọ a, echiche nke ọtụtụ ndị na-ekwu okwu na-agbanwe agbanwe: mmepụta mmepụta na Indonesia na Malaysia akwụsịla, ebe oriri nkwụ n'ọtụtụ mba ndị na-achọsi ike na-ekwe nkwa, a na-atụkwa anya na ọnụ ahịa nkwụ ga-ebili n'ime ọnwa ole na ole sochirinụ wee daa. 2024. O ji nwayọọ nwayọọ ma ọ bụ gbadaa n’ọkara mbụ nke afọ.

Dorab Mistry, onye nyocha dị elu nke nwere ahụmahụ karịa 40 afọ na ụlọ ọrụ ahụ, bụ ọkà okwu dị arọ na ogbako;n'ime afọ abụọ gara aga, ọ nwetawokwa njirimara ọhụrụ dị arọ ọzọ: na-eje ozi dị ka onye isi ọka ọka, mmanụ na nri India onyeisi oche nke ụlọ ọrụ ndị edepụtara Adani Wilmar;ụlọ ọrụ ahụ bụ njikọ aka n'etiti Adani Group nke India na Wilmar International nke Singapore.

Kedu ka ọkachamara ụlọ ọrụ a guzosiri ike na-ele ahịa ugbu a na usoro n'ọdịnihu?Echiche ya dịgasị iche iche site na onye ọzọ, na ihe kwesịrị ekwesị na-ezo aka bụ ya ụlọ ọrụ echiche, nke na-enyere ụlọ ọrụ insiders ịghọta ihe gbara ya gburugburu na isi eri n'azụ mgbagwoju ahịa, ka ise ikpe nke ha.

Isi ihe Mistry bụ: ihu igwe na-agbanwe agbanwe, ọnụ ahịa ngwaahịa ọrụ ugbo (abụba na mmanụ) anaghị adị njọ.O kwenyere na a ga-edobe atụmanya bullish ezi uche maka mmanụ ihe oriri niile, ọkachasị mmanụ nkwụ.Ihe ndị a bụ isi okwu nke okwu ọgbakọ ya:

Ihe ngosi ihu igwe na-ekpo ọkụ na nke kpọrọ nkụ jikọtara ya na El Niño na 2023 dị nro karịa ka a tụrụ anya na ọ ga-enwe mmetụta dị nta na mpaghara mmepụta mmanụ nkwụ.Mkpụrụ mmanụ ndị ọzọ (soybean, rapeseed, wdg) nwere ihe ubi kwesịrị ekwesị ma ọ bụ nke ka mma.

Ọnụ ahịa mmanụ ahịhịa emewokwa ka njọ karịa ka a tụrụ anya ya ugbu a;tumadi n'ihi ezigbo mma nkwụ na 2023, dollar siri ike, akụ na ụba na-esighi ike na mba ndị na-azụ ahịa, yana ọnụ ahịa mmanụ sunflower dị ala na mpaghara Oke Osimiri Ojii.

Ugbu a anyị abanyela na 2024, ọnọdụ dị ugbu a bụ na ọchịchọ ahịa dị larịị, soybean na ọka enwetala nnukwu ihe ubi, El Niño ebelatala, ọnọdụ uto ihe ọkụkụ dị mma, dollar US siri ike, mmanụ sunflower na-aga n'ihu. adịghị ike.

Yabụ, kedu ihe ga-ebute ọnụ ahịa mmanụ?Enwere oke ehi anọ nwere ike ime:

Nke mbụ, enwere nsogbu ihu igwe na North America;nke abụọ, Federal Reserve ebelatala ọmụrụ nwa nke ọma, si otú ahụ na-ebelata ike ịzụrụ na ọnụego mgbanwe nke dollar US;nke atọ, otu US Democratic Party meriri ntuli aka nke Nọvemba wee wepụta mkpali nchedo gburugburu ebe obibi siri ike;nke anọ, ọnụ ahịa ume amụbaala.

Banyere mmanụ nkwụ

Mmepụta nkwụ mmanụ na Ndịda Ebe Ọwụwa Anyanwụ Eshia emezubeghị ihe a tụrụ anya n'ihi na osisi ndị ahụ na-aka nká, ụzọ mmepụta ihe na-aga azụ, ebe a na-akụ ihe ọkụkụ esibeghịkwa ike gbasaa.N'ileghachi anya na ụlọ ọrụ ihe ọkụkụ mmanụ dum, ụlọ ọrụ mmanụ nkwụ abụwo nke kachasị nwayọọ na ngwa teknụzụ.

Mmepụta mmanụ nkwụ Indonesia nwere ike ibelata ma ọ dịkarịa ala otu nde tọn na 2024, ebe mmepụta Malaysian nwere ike ịdịgidere otu ihe ahụ dị ka afọ gara aga.

Uru nnụcha agbanwela nke na-adịghị mma n'ọnwa ndị na-adịbeghị anya, bụ ihe ịrịba ama na mmanụ nkwụ esiwo n'ụba si n'ụba gaa na nke siri ike;na atumatu biofuel ọhụrụ ga-eme ka esemokwu dịkwuo njọ, nkwụ ga-enwe ohere n'oge na-adịghị anya, na nke kasị ukwuu The bullish ekwe omume dabeere na North America ihu igwe, karịsịa na April na July window.

Ndị nwere ike ịkwọ ụgbọ ala maka nkwụ bụ: mgbasawanye nke B100 pure biodiesel na ike mmepụta mmanụ ụgbọ elu (SAF) na Ndịda Ebe Ọwụwa Anyanwụ Eshia, mbelata nke mmepụta mmanụ nkwụ, na iwepụta mkpụrụ mmanụ na-adịghị mma na North America, Europe ma ọ bụ ebe ọzọ.

Banyere mkpụrụ osisi rapes

Mmepụta mkpụrụ n'ike n'ike n'ụwa na-agbake na 2023, yana mmanụ mkpụrụ n'ike na-erite uru site na mkpali biofuel.

Mmepụta mkpụrụ n'ike n'ike nke India ga-adaba ndekọ na 2024, ọkachasị n'ihi nkwalite siri ike nke ọrụ mmeko nwoke nke ndị otu ụlọ ọrụ India.

Banyere agwa soy

Ọchịchọ dị umengwụ sitere na China na-ewute echiche ahịa soybean;teknụzụ mkpụrụ dị mma na-enye nkwado maka mmepụta soybean;

Ọnụ ọgụgụ ngwakọta biodiesel nke Brazil abawanyela, mana mmụba ahụ erubeghị ka ụlọ ọrụ ahụ tụrụ anya;United States na-ebubata mmanụ esi nri n'efu nke China n'ọtụtụ buru ibu, nke dị njọ maka agwa soy mana ọ dị mma maka mmanụ nkwụ;

Nri soybean na-aghọ ibu arọ ma nwee ike ịga n'ihu na-eche nrụgide ihu.

Banyere mmanụ sunflower

Ọ bụ ezie na esemokwu dị n'etiti Russia na Ukraine ka na-aga n'ihu kemgbe February 2022, mba abụọ ahụ enwetala nnukwu ihe ubi nke mkpụrụ osisi sunflower na nhazi mmanụ sunflower emetụtaghị;

Na ka ego ha na-agbada karịa dollar, mmanụ sunflower bịara dị ọnụ ala na mba abụọ ahụ;mmanụ sunflower weghaara oke ahịa ahịa ọhụrụ.

Soro China

China ọ ga-abụ ihe na-akpata ịrị elu n'ahịa mmanụ?dabere na:

Kedu mgbe China ga-amaliteghachi uto ngwa ngwa yana maka oriri mmanụ oriri?China ọ ga-emepụta amụma biofuels?A ka ga-ebupụ mmanụ esi nri n'efu UCO n'ọtụtụ buru ibu?

Soro India

Mbubata India na 2024 ga-adị ala karịa na 2023.

Nri na ihe a na-achọ na India dị mma, mana ndị ọrụ ugbo India na-ejide nnukwu mmanụ mmanụ maka 2023, na ibufe ebuka na 2023 ga-emebi mbubata.

Ike zuru ụwa ọnụ na mmanụ nri chọrọ

Ọchịchọ mmanụ ike zuru ụwa ọnụ (biofuels) ga-abawanye site na ihe ruru nde tọn atọ na 2022/23;n'ihi mgbasawanye nke ikike mmepụta na ojiji na Indonesia na United States, a na-atụ anya na mmanụ ike ga-abawanye site na nde tọn 4 na 2023/24.

Ọchịchọ nhazi nri zuru ụwa ọnụ maka mmanụ ihe oriri ejirila nde 3 mụbaa kwa afọ, a na-atụkwa anya na mmanụ nri ga-abawanye site na nde tọn atọ na 23/24.

Ihe na-emetụta ọnụ ahịa mmanụ

Ma United States ọ ga-adaba na nlaazu ego;Atụmanya akụ na ụba China;olee mgbe agha abụọ ahụ (Russia-Ukraine, Palestine na Israel) ga-akwụsị;usoro dollar;ntuziaka na mkpali biofuel ọhụrụ;ọnụ ahịa mmanụ crude.

anya price

Banyere ọnụ ahịa mmanụ ihe oriri zuru ụwa ọnụ, Mistry na-ebu amụma ihe ndị a:

A na-atụ anya ịzụ nkwụ nke Malaysian na 3,900-4,500 ringgit ($ 824-951) kwa ton n'etiti ugbu a na June.

Ntuziaka nke ọnụahịa nkwụ ga-adabere na mpịakọta mmepụta.Nkeji nkeji nke abụọ (Eprel, Mee na June) nke afọ a ga-abụ ọnwa nwere oke nkwu.

Ihu igwe n'oge oge ihe ọkụkụ na North America ga-abụ mgbanwe dị mkpa na nlele ọnụahịa mgbe ọnwa Mee gasịrị.Okwu ihu igwe ọ bụla dị na North America nwere ike ịgbanye fiusi maka ọnụ ahịa dị elu.

Ọnụ ahịa mmanụ soybean US CBOT ga-alaghachi azụ n'ihi mbelata mmepụta mmanụ soybean ụlọ na United States ma ga-aga n'ihu na-erite uru site na ọchịchọ biodiesel US siri ike.

Mmanụ soybean ntụpọ US ga-abụ mmanụ ihe oriri kachasị ọnụ n'ụwa, ihe a ga-akwado ọnụ ahịa mmanụ n'ike.

Ọnụ ahịa mmanụ sunflower dị ka agbadatala ala.

Nchịkọta

Ihe kacha emetụta ga-abụ ihu igwe North America, mmepụta mmanụ nkwụ na ntuziaka biofuels.

Ihu igwe ka bụ nnukwu mgbanwe na ọrụ ugbo.Ọnọdụ ihu igwe dị mma, nke kwadoro owuwe ihe ubi n'oge na-adịbeghị anya ma mee ka ọnụ ahịa ọka na mmanụ dị ala karịa afọ atọ, nwere ike ọ gaghị adịte aka ma ekwesịrị iji nlezianya lelee ya.

Ọnụ ahịa ọrụ ugbo anaghị agba ọsọ n'ihi oke ihu igwe.