poe akamai

Mai ka lā 4 o Malaki a i ka lā 6 o kēia pule, ua mālama ʻia kahi ʻaha kūkā i hoʻokipa kiʻekiʻe mai ka ʻoihana ʻaila a me nā momona o ka honua ma Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.ʻO ka mākeke aila "bear-infested" i kēia manawa ua piha i ka noe, a ke kali nei nā mea komo a pau i ka hālāwai e hāʻawi i ke alakaʻi alakaʻi.

ʻO ka inoa piha o ka hālāwai kūkā ʻo "The 35th Palm Oil and Laurel Oil Price Outlook Conference and Exhibition", he hanana hoʻololi ʻoihana makahiki i mālama ʻia e Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD).

Nui nā mea loiloi kaulana a me nā loea ʻoihana i hōʻike i ko lākou manaʻo e pili ana i ka hāʻawi honua a me ka koi ʻana o ka aila meaʻai a me nā kumu kūʻai o ka aila pāma ma ka hālāwai.I loko o kēia manawa, hoʻolaha pinepine ʻia nā ʻōlelo bullish, me ka hoʻoulu ʻana i ka ʻaila pāma e hoʻoulu i ka mākeke aila a me ka momona e ala aʻe i kēia pule.

ʻO ka aila pāma ka 32% o ka hana ʻaila aila honua, a ʻo kāna helu hoʻopuka i nā makahiki ʻelua i hala aku nei he 54% o ka nui o ke kālepa aila ʻai honua, e pāʻani ana i ke kuleana o ke alakaʻi kumu kūʻai ma ka mākeke aila.

I loko o kēia kau, ua kūlike nā manaʻo o ka hapa nui o nā mea kamaʻilio: ua paʻa ka ulu ʻana o ka hana ma Indonesia a me Malaysia, ʻoiai ke hoʻohiki nei ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka aila pāma ma nā ʻāina koi nui, a ke manaʻo nei e piʻi ke kumukūʻai aila pāma i nā mahina e hiki mai ana. 2024. Ua lohi a emi iho paha i ka hapa mua o ka makahiki.

ʻO Dorab Mistry, he kanaka loiloi koʻikoʻi me ka ʻoi aku o 40 mau makahiki o ka ʻike ma ka ʻoihana, he mea haʻiʻōlelo kaumaha ma ka ʻaha kūkā;i nā makahiki ʻelua i hala iho nei, ua loaʻa hou iā ia kekahi ʻano hou kaumaha kaumaha: lawelawe ʻo ia ma ke ʻano he alakaʻi alakaʻi o India, ʻaila a me ka hui meaʻai Lunahoomalu o ka hui i helu ʻia ʻo Adani Wilmar;He hui hui ka hui ma waena o India's Adani Group a me Singapore's Wilmar International.

Pehea ka ʻike ʻana o kēia loea ʻoihana paʻa i ka mākeke o kēia manawa a me nā ʻano e hiki mai ana?ʻOkoʻa kāna mau manaʻo mai kēlā me kēia kanaka, a ʻo ka mea kūpono ke kuhikuhi ʻia ʻo ia kāna hiʻohiʻona ʻoihana, e kōkua ana i ka poʻe i loko o ka ʻoihana e hoʻomaopopo i ka pōʻaiapili a me ke kaula nui ma hope o ka mākeke paʻakikī, i mea e huki ai i kā lākou manaʻo ponoʻī.

ʻO ka manaʻo nui o Mistry: hiki ke loli ke ea, a ʻaʻole piʻi nā kumukūʻai o nā huahana mahiʻai (nā momona a me nā aila).Manaʻo ʻo ia e mālama ʻia nā manaʻolana kūwaho kūpono no nā ʻaila meaʻai āpau, ʻoi aku ka aila pāma.Eia na kumu nui o kana haiolelo ahaolelo.

ʻOi aku ka maʻalahi o nā ʻano ʻano wela a maloʻo e pili ana me El Niño ma 2023 ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo ʻia a he liʻiliʻi ka hopena i nā wahi hana ʻaila pāma.ʻO nā hua aila ʻē aʻe (soybeans, rapeseed, etc.) loaʻa nā ʻohi maʻamau a maikaʻi paha.

Ua ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o nā kumukūʻai aila meaʻai ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo ʻia i kēia manawa;ʻO ka mea nui ma muli o ka hana ʻaila pāma maikaʻi i 2023, kahi kālā ʻoi aku ka ikaika, nā ʻoihana nāwaliwali i nā ʻāina mea kūʻai aku, a me nā kumukūʻai aila sunflower haʻahaʻa ma ka ʻāina ʻEleʻele.

I kēia manawa ua komo mākou i ka makahiki 2024, ʻo ke kūlana i kēia manawa he palahalaha ka makemake o ka mākeke, ua loaʻa i ka soybeans a me ka kulina ka hōʻiliʻili nui, ua emi ʻo El Niño, maikaʻi nā kūlana ulu, ʻoi aku ka ikaika o ke kālā US, a ke hoʻomau nei ka ʻaila sunflower. nawaliwali.

No laila, he aha nā mea e hoʻonui ai i nā kumukūʻai aila?ʻEhā mau bipi kūpono.

ʻO ka mua, aia nā pilikia o ka wā ma ʻAmelika ʻĀkau;ʻO ka lua, ua ʻoki ʻoi loa ka Federal Reserve i nā kumukūʻai, a laila hoʻonāwaliwali i ka mana kūʻai a me ke kumukūʻai o ke kālā ʻAmelika;ʻO ke kolu, ua lanakila ka US Democratic Party i ke koho balota ʻo Nowemapa a ua hoʻokumu i nā manaʻo hoʻoikaika ʻōmaʻomaʻo ikaika;ʻo ka hā, ua piʻi aʻe nā kumukūʻai ikehu.

E pili ana i ka ʻaila pāma

ʻAʻole i hoʻokō ka hoʻoulu ʻana i ka aila ma Asia Hikina Hema i nā mea i manaʻo ʻia no ka mea ua ʻelemakule nā ​​kumu lāʻau, ua hoʻi hope nā ʻano hana hana, a ʻaʻole i hoʻonui ʻia ka wahi kanu.Ke nānā nei i ka ʻoihana ʻaila ʻaila holoʻokoʻa, ʻoi aku ka lohi o ka ʻoihana ʻaila pāma i ka noi ʻenehana.

Hiki ke hoʻemi ʻia ka hana ʻaila pāma Indonesia ma ka liʻiliʻi he 1 miliona tons i ka makahiki 2024, ʻoiai ʻo ka hana ʻana o Malaysia e noho like me ka makahiki i hala.

ʻO ka hoʻomaʻemaʻe ʻana i nā waiwai i hoʻololi maikaʻi ʻia i nā mahina i hala iho nei, he hōʻailona ua neʻe ka ʻaila pāma mai ka nui a i ka lako paʻa;a me nā kulekele biofuel hou e hoʻonui i nā hoʻopaʻapaʻa, e loaʻa koke i ka aila pāma ka manawa e ala aʻe, a ʻo ka mea nui loa ʻO ka hiki ke kū i ka ʻĀkau o ʻAmelika, ʻoi loa i ka puka makani ʻApelila a Iulai.

ʻO nā mea hoʻokele bullish no ka ʻaila pāma: ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka biodiesel maʻemaʻe B100 a me ka wahie lele hoʻomau (SAF) hiki ke hana i ka hikina o Asia Hema, ka lohi i ka hana ʻaila pāma, a me ka ʻohi ʻana i ka aila maikaʻi ma ʻAmelika ʻĀkau, ʻEulopa a i ʻole nā ​​wahi ʻē aʻe.

E pili ana i ka rapeseed

Hoʻihoʻi hou ʻia ka hana rapeseed honua i 2023, me ka aila rapeseed e pōmaikaʻi ana mai nā mea hoʻoikaika biofuel.

E hoʻopaʻa ʻia ka hana rapeseed o India i ka makahiki 2024, ma muli o ka hoʻolaha ikaika ʻana o nā papahana rapeseed e nā hui ʻoihana India.

E pili ana i ka soya

ʻO ka noi lohi mai Kina e hōʻeha i ka manaʻo o ka mākeke soya;Hāʻawi ka ʻenehana hua hoʻomaikaʻi i ke kākoʻo no ka hana ʻana i ka soya;

Ua hoʻonui ʻia ka helu hoʻohuihui biodiesel o Brazil, akā ʻaʻole i like ka piʻi ʻana e like me ka ʻoihana i manaʻo ʻia;ke lawe mai nei ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ka ʻaila ʻala ʻōpala o Kina i ka nui, he mea ʻino ia no ka soybeans akā maikaʻi no ka ʻaila pama;

Lilo ka ʻai soya i mea kaumaha a hiki ke hoʻomau i ka pilikia.

E pili ana i ka ʻaila sunflower

ʻOiai ke hoʻomau nei ka hakakā ma waena o Rūsia a me Ukraine mai Pepeluali 2022, ua loaʻa i nā ʻāina ʻelua i ka hōʻiliʻili bumper o nā hua sunflower a ʻaʻole i hoʻopilikia ʻia ka hana ʻaila sunflower;

A i ka emi ʻana o kā lākou mau kālā i ke kālā, ua ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ka aila sunflower ma nā ʻāina ʻelua;Ua hopu ka aila sunflower i mau mahele makeke hou.

Hahai iā Kina

E lilo anei ʻo Kina i mea ikaika ma hope o ka piʻi ʻana o ka mākeke aila?ma muli o:

I ka manawa hea e hoʻomaka ai ʻo Kina i ka ulu wikiwiki a pehea e pili ana i ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka aila meaʻai?E hoʻokumu anei ʻo Kina i kahi kulekele biofuels?E hoʻokuʻu ʻia paha ka ʻaila ʻaila UCO i nā mea nui?

Hahai i Inia

ʻO ka lawe ʻana mai o India ma 2024 e haʻahaʻa ma mua o 2023.

ʻIke maikaʻi ka hoʻohana ʻana a me ke koi ʻana ma India, akā paʻa ka poʻe mahiʻai India i nā waiwai nui o ka aila no 2023, a ʻo ka lawe ʻana o nā waiwai i 2023 e hōʻino ʻia i ka lawe ʻana mai.

Ka ikehu honua a me ka aila aila koi

E piʻi aʻe ka koi aila ikehu honua (bifuels) ma kahi o 3 miliona tons ma 2022/23;ma muli o ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka mana hana a me ka hoʻohana ʻana ma Indonesia a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, manaʻo ʻia e hoʻonui hou ʻia ka koi aila ikehu e 4 miliona tons ma 2023/24.

Ua hoʻonui mau ʻia ka noi ʻana o ka aila meaʻai honua e 3 miliona tons i kēlā me kēia makahiki, a ke manaʻo ʻia nei e piʻi aʻe ka noi aila meaʻai e 3 miliona mau tons ma 23/24.

Nā mea e pili ana i nā kumukūʻai aila

E hāʻule paha ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i loko o ka emi ʻana;ʻO nā manaʻo hoʻokele waiwai o Kina;ahea la e pau ai na kaua elua (Russia-Ukraine, Palesetine a me Israel);kala kala;nā kuhikuhi a me nā mea hoʻoikaika biofuel hou;kumukūʻai aila.

kumu kūʻai

E pili ana i nā kumukūʻai aila ʻai honua, wānana ʻo Mistry i kēia aʻe:

Manaʻo ʻia e kālepa ʻia ka aila pāma Malaysian ma 3,900-4,500 ringgit ($ 824-951) no ka ton ma waena o kēia manawa a me Iune.

ʻO ke kuhikuhi o nā kumukūʻai aila pāma e hilinaʻi ʻia i ka nui o ka hana.ʻO ka hapahā ʻelua (ʻApelila, Mei, a me Iune) o kēia makahiki ʻo ia ka mahina me ka paʻa loa o ka ʻaila pama.

ʻO ke aniau i ka wā kanu ma ʻAmelika ʻĀkau e lilo ia i mea hoʻololi nui i ka nānā ʻana i ke kumukūʻai ma hope o Mei.Hiki i nā pilikia o ka wā ma ʻAmelika ʻĀkau ke hoʻomālamalama i ka fuse no nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe.

E piʻi hou nā kumukūʻai ʻaila soybean US CBOT ma muli o ka emi ʻana o ka hana ʻaila soybean home ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa a e hoʻomau ʻia ka pōmaikaʻi mai ka koi ikaika biodiesel US.

E lilo ana ka aila soybean US i ka aila mea kanu pipiʻi loa ma ka honua, a na kēia kumu e kākoʻo i nā kumukūʻai aila rapeseed.

ʻIke ʻia nā kumu kūʻai ʻaila Sunflower i lalo.

Hōʻuluʻulu

ʻO ka hopena nui loa ʻo ia ka ʻāina ʻAmelika ʻĀkau, ka hana ʻaila palma a me ke kuhikuhi biofuels.

He ʻano nui ka lewa i ka mahiʻai.ʻO ke ʻano o ka wā maikaʻi, ka mea i makemake i nā hōʻiliʻili hou a ua hoʻokuʻu i nā kumukūʻai palaoa a me ka aila i nā haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa ʻoi aku ma mua o ʻekolu makahiki, ʻaʻole hiki ke lōʻihi a pono ke nānā ʻia me ka akahele.

ʻAʻole emi nā kumukūʻai mahiʻai ma muli o ke ʻano o ke aniau.